第六节 理论评述和未来研究方向
从以上的文献评述可以看出，既有文献没有圆满回答改革时期印尼族群动员方式选择的问题。原因如下：第一，聚焦族群动员方式的研究成果少。虽然对改革时期印尼族群动员的研究数量很多，但是除了对族群间暴力的产生条件有较多的研究以外，对非暴力族群动员方式的研究凤毛麟角。即使在研究族群暴力的文献中，也罕有研究回答为什么族群动员采用某种暴力方式而不是其他暴力方式。[71]
第二，四种理论传统存在内生缺陷。文化主义、反应性和竞争性视角的共同思路是从单一的集体诉求角度分析族群动员的形成和发展，然而印尼族群动员的动机往往是多重且复杂的，换句话说，“目的—行动”的逻辑框架解释力弱。而政治过程的逻辑框架是“条件—行动”，较少考虑集体行动参与者纷繁复杂的动机，更多考虑动员的条件是否具备，即如果存在条件，族群动员就可能发生。政治过程视角对印尼族群动员的解释力稍强，也是近期许多较成功的案例研究借鉴的理论视角。政治过程视角长于对单一案例的路径分析，揭示族群动员如何一步步发生和发展，但是不足以胜任一个国家内部地区间的案例比较研究，无法解释为什么在制度初始条件相似的情况下，不同地区的族群动员选择不同的动员方式。
第三，案例比较的意识淡薄，缺乏机制提炼和变量转化的努力。在方法上，对近期族群动员的相关研究仍拘泥在对个案的描述性研究框架下，对相似的现象缺乏归纳和比较，理论化程度低，尤其没有处理好“地方情境”概念的机制提炼和变量转化。在既往研究中，学者无一不认为地方特殊性或地方情境对族群动员有重要影响，塑造了族群动员的动机、行动者特征和动员条件。尽管研究对个案的“地方情境”都有详细的深描，却往往陷入“垃圾桶深描”的陷阱中，即堆砌各个方面的细节，不能从细节中提炼出真正起作用的变量，缺乏机制提炼的努力。另外，即使研究者指出案例中“地方情境”的某些因素对于塑造动员方式有重要作用，也往往缺乏比较的意识，没有继续研究该因素是不是在其他地区的案例中也起作用，换句话说，缺乏将“专有名称”置换为“变量”的尝试。[72]
第四，案例选择偏差。忽视失败的或中途停止的族群动员，导致案例选择偏差和过程追踪不完整的方法疏漏。研究者往往只关注成功动员并实现既定目标的族群动员案例的完整过程，而不关注动员中途停止的案例。如果认为动员结果是干扰变量的话，这种情况意味着所有案例的该干扰变量只有一种取值，故该变量没有得到控制。
基于上述分析，笔者认为未来对印尼族群动员方式的研究方向将是搭建基于制度条件变量和地方情境变量的逻辑框架。制度条件变量主要指国家层次和地方层次的制度条件和变化提供的行动背景和机遇。制度条件变量在很大程度上塑造了动员方式的“抗争戏码”，帮助研究者了解某一个时期动员方式的普遍性特征，以及在制度变化时，动员方式变化的可选范围。地方情境变量主要指发生争端的族群群体的相关特征。针对不同的议题，地方情境变量的操作化有差异，例如针对民俗地争议，地方情境需要将不同族群的土地习惯法差异纳入其中，针对选举中的族群动员，地方情境需要将不同族群的社会网络动员方式的差异纳入考虑范围内。在控制了制度条件变量的前提下，地方情境变量能帮助研究者比较不同地区、不同族群在处理相似问题时采用方式的差异。在实证过程中，要注意在案例选择中控制相关变量，避免案例选择出现偏差。
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