中国资本市场研究报告(2016)股市危机与政府干预:让历史告诉未来
上QQ阅读APP看书,第一时间看更新

Key Point

1.In 2015, the most serious market crisis occurred in China since the establishment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. We must seriously analyze and ponder the formation, the causes and the regulatory defects of the stock market crisis, and thus to find institutional arrangements and policy measures to avoid and deal with the stock market crisis in the future.

2.The short history of China's capital market result in the insufficient sample width, inadequate history depth and the lack of representative characteristics. Therefore, we need to seriously study the law of the formation and the experience to deal with the global stock market crises, which had typical and important influence in the nearly 30 years. The stones of other hills may serve to polish the jade.

3.There are four individual forms of financial crises:currency crisis, debt crisis, banking liquidity crisis and stock market crisis. Based on the diversities in economic size, market-oriented level, exogenous capital dependence and financial structure, the types, occurrence, impacts on real economy, coping measures and market recovery capabilities in different countries are different. In the countries or economies occurred financial crises, there existed complex and different conversion processes and infection effects among the four forms of the financial crises.

4.In fact, there exist intertemporal and cross-regional international transfers in the financial crises. The transfers can be accomplished by profit seeking and global flow of international capital. This may be an important reason that the global financial crises or the stock market crises usually have eight to tenyear period.

5.In most countries or economies occurred the stock market crises, excessive credit expansion or credit bubble is the historical starting point in the formation process of the stock market crises. Excessive credit expansion generally occurs in the growth phase of the economic cycle, it gives birth to rapid increases in asset prices including real estate and stock prices, and then triggers a stock market crisis and even an all-around financial crisis. The presence of a theoretical logic process can be described in the stock market crisis.

6.Essentially, the financial crisis or the stock market crisis is a monetary phenomenon or a serious capital surplus. The financial crisis or the stock market crisis is the genovariation(transgenosis)of the hyper inflation, they are different in forms but homogeneous in nature.

7.In order to prevent the stock market crisis, the leverage ratio must be controlled, just as to control the water flow needs to control the valve. Counter-cyclical leverage adjustment mechanism is the prerequisite to control the market bubble and even the crisis.

8.Effective market regulation is an important stabilizing mechanism, also an important guarantee of market order and transparency. Regulators are market“scavengers”rather than direct promoter of market trends. Obviously, regulator spursue the boundless blue sky, well ordered market, instead of the level of the index.