结语
2016年大选与其说是一次竞选，不如说更像是一场社会运动，一场怀有变革与“反建制派”民怨情绪的白人蓝领中下层在社交媒体动员下进行的社会运动。“反建制派”候选人特朗普为共和党提供了吸引蓝领中下层这一关键选民群体的“本土主义”理念，进而很好地顺应了2016年大选的总体趋势。“建制派”候选人希拉里·克林顿无论是在政策立场还是在个人特质上都已不适合本次选举的特定环境，最终因无力扭转民主党在蓝领中下层群体及“锈蚀带”地区的颓势而落败。
不可否认，特朗普及共和党的胜利，远非美国选民为当前内外困境寻求到的最佳解决方案，而是选民对传统精英提出的方案的彻底否定以及对非传统精英方案的“赌性”期待。这就意味着，对特朗普而言，胜选只是迈出的第一步，能否兑现承诺、切实解决问题，才是接踵而至的更大考验。如果无法实现诺言，他要么很快被“建制派”精英同化，要么只能通过不断的极端举动来维持部分但却足够多的民意支持，实施社会运动般的执政。
可以预见，特朗普的当选预示着美国政党政治新一轮漫长重组的开始，并将美国再度抛入了以阶层与族裔意义上的抗争为主题的社会运动的多发期与易发期。但无论如何，特朗普政府极可能并非是切实变革的起点，而是民怨情绪的下一个目标，美国政治进而也将步入充斥着冲突与不确定性的自我调整阶段。
（刁大明：中国社会科学院美国研究所助理研究员）
[1] 本文初发表于《美国研究》2016年第6期，略有增改。
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