总结

金融抑制不仅在一般意义上影响金融发展和经济增长，还可能是一系列不同的经济失衡的根本原因。本章对这些经济失衡中的一些进行了讨论。这些经济失衡中的一些已经对中国政府形成了困难的挑战。尽管中国的经常账户似乎已经更接近一个合理水平，现在还很难说这是由于金融危机导致贸易伙伴需求显著下降所引起的暂时性减少，还是本质上更具持久性的减少。除了外部失衡，国内结构失衡和严重的不平等构成了中国政策制定者需要解决的主要困难。尽管金融抑制不是导致这些失衡的唯一因素，更少抑制性的金融政策有助于减轻这些失衡。金融自由化会减少对投资和重工业发展的严重依赖，并为服务业和消费的扩张释放资源。类似地，进一步的金融改革会引起更显著的金融发展，从而为经济个体带来多种好处，从更高的家庭储蓄回报到贫穷家庭有机会接受高质量的教育。这些潜在变化很可能有助于终结中国不断增加的不平等。

如本章所提到的，最近的研究将原本不相干的金融抑制领域和经济失衡放到了一起。沿着这些方向的进一步的研究对全面理解抑制性金融政策可能对经济产生影响的诸多方式是重要的。这类研究也将有助于阐明针对金融自由化的积极和消极影响所进行的争论所忽视的那些问题。

审视本章所讨论的金融改革的每一个维度，很显然的是中国需要进一步的改革以发展出一个运转良好的金融体系。然而，同样重要的是为每一个改革确定一个合适的次序，因为特定领域的快速改革如果不考虑相关的抑制性政策可能会导致不稳定，这可能会阻碍政策制定者将整套计划实施到最后，无论对中国人还是对全球公民，这都将会是毁灭性的后果。

参考文献

Abiad, A., Detragiache, E. and Tressel, T., 2008, A new database of financial reforms， IMF Working Paper WP/08/266, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

Amsden, A., 1989, Asia's Next Giant: South Korea and late industrialization, Oxford University Press, New York.

Barboza, D., 2012, ‘Wen calls China banks too powerful', The New York Times, 3 April, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/04/business/global/chinas-big-banks-too-powerful-premier-says.html?_r=1.

China Securities Journal, 2012, ‘The fundamental conditions for China to accelerate capital account opening are ripe', China Securities Journal, [Online; in Chinese], 24 February, http://www.cs.com.cn/xwzx/07/201202/t20120223_3253890.html.

Chinn, M. D. and Ito, H., 2006, ‘What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions', Journal of Development Economics, vol.81，pp.163-192.

Demirguc-Kunt, A. and Levine, R., 2009, ‘Finance and inequality: theory and evidence', Annual Review of Financial Economics, vol.1, pp.287-318.

Deng, Y., Morck, R., Wu, J. and Yeung, B., 2011, Monetary and fiscal stimuli, ownership structure, and China's housing market, NBER Working Paper Series No.16871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass.

Fang, X. and Yu, L., 2012, ‘Government refuses to release Gini coefficient', Caixin Online, 18 January, http://english.caixin.com/2012-01-18/100349814.html.

Feng, X., Johansson, A. C. and Zhang, T., 2011, Political participation and entrepreneurial initial public offerings in China, China Economic Research Center Working Paper Series 2011-17, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm.

Frankel, J. A., 2006, ‘On the yuan: the choice between adjustment under a fixed exchange rate and adjustment under a flexible rate', CESifo Economic Studies, vol.52, pp. 246-275.

Goldstein, M. and Lardy, N., 2006, ‘China's exchange rate dilemma', American Economic Review, AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol.96, pp.422-426.

Hellmann, T., Murdock, K. and Stiglitz, J., 1997, ‘Financial restraint: toward a new paradigm', in M. Aoki, H. - K. Kim and M. Okuno-Fujuwara（eds）, The Role of Government in East Asian Economic Development: Comparative institutional analysis, Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK.

Hellmann, T., Murdock, K. and Stiglitz, J., 2000, ‘Liberalisation, moral hazard in banking and prudential regulation: are capital controls enough? ', American Economic Review, vol.90, pp.147-165.

Hu, J., 2011, Full text of Chinese President Hu Jintao's speech at Opening Ceremony of Boao Forum, Xinhua, 15 April 2011, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-04/15/c_13830786.htm.

Huang, Y. and Wang, B., 2010, ‘Rebalancing China's economic structure', East Asia Forum, 3 September, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010/09/03/rebalancing-chinas-economic-structure/.

Huang, Y. P. and Wang, X.2011, ‘Does financial repression inhibit or facilitate economic growth? A case study of Chinese reform experience', Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics， vol.73, pp.833-855.

International Monetary Fund（IMF）, 2011, People's Republic of China: financial system stability assessment, IMF Country Report No.11/321, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

Ito, H. and Chinn, M. D., 2010, Notes on the Chinn-Ito financial openness index:2008 update, Unpublished ms.

Johansson, A. C. and Wang, X., 2011, Financial repression and structural imbalances, China Economic Research Center Working Paper 2011-19, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm.

Johansson, A. C. and Wang, X., 2012a, Financial repression and external imbalances, China Economic Research Center Working Paper 2012-20, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm.

Johansson, A. C. and Wang, X., 2012b, Financial repression and inequality, Unpublished ms, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm.

Johnson, C., 1982, MITI and the Japanese Miracle, Stanford University Press, Stanford, Calif.

King, R. G. and Levine, R., 1993, ‘Finance, entrepreneurship, and growth: Theory and evidence', Journal of Monetary Economics 32, 513-542.

Lardy, N., 2008, Financial repression in China, Policy Brief PB08-8, Peterson Institute of International Economics, Washington, DC.

Lardy, N., 2012, Sustaining China's Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.

Lardy, N. and Douglass, P., 2011, Capital account liberalisation and the role of the renminbi, Working Paper Series 11-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.

Levine, R., 2005. ‘Finance and Growth: Theory, Mechanisms and Evidence', in Aghion, P. and Durlauf, S. N.（eds）, Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol 1, Part A, Elsevier, 865-934.

Lu, S. F. and Yao, Y., 2009, ‘The effectiveness of law, financial development, and economic growth in an economy of financial repression: evidence from China', World Development, vol.37, pp.763-777.

Lu, Y., Wang, Z. and Zheng, F., 2012, ‘Can anyone save stock market supervision? ', Caixin Online, 19 March, http://english.caixin.com/2012-03-19/100369865_3.html.

McKinnon, R. I., 1973, Money and Capital in Economic Development, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.

Pagano, M., 1993, ‘Financial markets and growth: an overview', European Economic Review, vol.37, pp.613-622.

Podpiera, R., 2006, Progress in China's banking sector reform: has bank behavior changed? , IMF Working Paper WP/06/71, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

Roubini, N. and Sala-i-Martin, X., 1992, ‘ Financial repression and economic growth', Journal of Development Economics, vol.39, pp.5-30.

Shaw, A. S., 1973, Financial Deepening in Economic Development, Oxford University Press, New York.

Shih, V. C., 2008, Factions and Finance in China: Elite conflict and inflation, Cambridge University Press, New York.

Stiglitz, J. E., 1994, ‘The role of the state in financial markets', in M. Bruno and B. Pleskovic（eds）, Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics, 1993: Supplement to the World Bank Economic Review and the World Bank Research Observer, The World Bank, Washington, DC.

Stiglitz, J. E., 2000, ‘Capital market liberalisation, economic growth and instability', World Development, vol.28, pp.1075-1086.

Stiglitz, J. E. and Weiss, A., 1981, ‘Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information', American Economic Review, vol.71, pp.393-410.

Wade, R., 1990, Governing the Market: Economic theory and the role of government in East Asian industrialisation, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.

Walter, C. E. and Howie, F. J. T., 2011, Red Capitalism, John Wiley & Sons, Singapore.

Wang, X. and Woo, W. T., 2011, ‘The size and distribution of hidden household income in China', Asian Economic Papers, vol.10, pp.1-26.

Wei, S. -J. and Wang, T., 1997, ‘The Siamese twins: do state-owned banks favor state-owned enterprises in China? ', China Economic Review, vol.8, pp.19-29.

World Bank, 2011, China: Financial sector assessment, The World Bank, Washington, DC.

World Bank, 2012, China 2030: Building a modern, harmonious and creative high-income society, The World Bank, Washington, DC.

Yao, Y., 2011, ‘Weak global demand should be a wake-up call for China', The Financial Times, 20 October.

（张川川 译）