2. My proposal after Party congress: unprecedented path of peaceful rise for China

During the first CPC national congress of the 21st century (the 16th CPC National Congress, held in November of 2002), a major decision was made: to seize the opportunity of the first 20 years of the new century to create a “moderately prosperous society” (a term coined by Deng Xiaoping) for the whole of China. I was involved in drafting documents for the congress and realized this was a huge part of Deng Xiaoping's Three-Step Strategy toward modernization. To practically implement this strategy, not only did the relationship between domestic reform, development, and stability need to be properly handled, but economic globalization and comprehensive national power-based competition (within the background of global multipolarity) had to be dealt with correctly so as to create a good international environment and open China up further to the world. It was precisely under such new conditions that research on the path of China's peaceful rise was made a priority for the daily agenda.

This is how it happened. In December of 2002 (after the 16th CPC National Congress), I left my post as executive vice president of the Central Party School and, as chairman of the China Reform Forum, went to the US to talk about the recently concluded congress. While there, I met people who held one of two views on China. The first was that, as a large country on the rise, China would inevitably challenge US strategic interests and thus be a threat to the US. The other view was that China would emulate the Soviet Union and eventually fall. With regards to these concepts held by much of the American government and public, while discussing the spirit of the 16th Congress and especially the path of development for the CPC during the 21st century, I stated, “China will proceed along a path that is completely different from the paths of development taken in recent history by other large nations: It will take a path of a peaceful rise.” I stressed, “This path of ours is different from that taken by World War I Germany and World War II Japan and Germany, paths that called for invasion, war, and re-partitioning of the world;it's also different from the path taken by Brezhnev era Soviet Union that competes with the US for world power through military alliances and arms races.”(8) In the several speeches I gave in the US, I clearly summed up the strategic path of China being linked to economic globalization instead of economic separatism while independently developing socialism with Chinese characteristics as a completely new path for China's peaceful rise.(9)

I, of course, felt the weight of this matter. When I returned to China (early January of 2013), I reported on my experience in the US to the the top leader and suggested that a research taskforce be organized as soon as possible. I thus initiated research that centered on this feature of China's peaceful rise. I further suggested that international forums on economic globalization and China's current path of a peaceful rise be held at an appropriate time. Leading departments regarded this suggestion as highly valuable, and on January 30, ordered research and, at appropriate time, exchanges with other countries on the issue to be carried out.

After that, I organized a number of meetings with personnel from the Central Party School and the China Reform Forum and visited related departments and officials at the Boao Forum for Asia. After diligent research, I submitted a report on the tasks at hand. In July and August of 2003, I formulated the outline for research, formed a core research team and subsidiary research teams, and organized experts (in and out of Beijing) in various fields to begin work.

Those in the subsidiary research teams worked tirelessly, and after four or five months of investigations, they wrote informative reports, such as “Comparisons of the Rises of Large Nations,” “The Strategic Path of China's Peaceful Rise,” “Concepts of an Era Based on Peace and Development,” “International Strategies during China's Peaceful Rise,”“The Rise of China in the Areas of Economic Power and Comprehensive National Power,” “China's National Defense Development and Army Building since the reform and opening up,” “The Youth of China and the New Path for China's Peaceful Rise,” “Strategies for Chinese Unity and Military Issues,” “The Effects of China's Rise on Surrounding Countries and the World,” “A Comprehensive Look at Sino-US Relations and Current Conflicts around the World,” and “Well-reputed Overseas Experts and Political Leaders on the Rise of China.” During this process, I hosted and attended a number of forums, such as project guidance meetings formed of senior members of the academic committee at the Central Party School. In addition, as suggested by leading figures, I initiated international exchanges on the subject of the path of China's peaceful rise at the Boao Forum for Asia.

The Boao Forum for Asia asked me to give a speech at its annual conference in 2003 to discuss this issue with political leaders and experts from other countries. In late October, I worked hard with those on my research team to draft the speech. In the speech, I stated that even though China had achieved a series of major advances, it was still an undeveloped country and still faced large-scale development difficulties. In talking about what “large-scale development difficulties” China faced, I used the metaphor of two simple math questions, one being multiplication and the other being division. The former was this: “No matter how small and thus negligible a difficulty for economic or social development seems to be, all you have to do is multiplying it by 1.3 billion to see how big it really is, and it may even be massive.” The latter was this: “No matter how impressive the numbers seem for our financial and material resources, all you have to do is dividing them by 1.3 billion to see how low they are, and they may be depressingly low in per capita terms.” The “1.3 billion” referred to the fact that the Chinese population was too large (and it still had not reached its peak, which is to be 1.5 billion around 2040 before beginning to decline).On the flip side, of course, this also implies increases in the areas of labor, innovation, and consumption, and the momentum of such is yet another order of magnitude! The development and rise of China include both difficulties and positive momentum, and in the end, both are inseparably related to the enormity of the Chinese population.(10)

After I gave this speech on November 3 at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference, Secretary-General Long Yongtu of the Boao Forum for Asia said that the speech “possessed instructive significance for the whole conference.” Ruan Cishan, the well-known commentator at Hong Kong's Phoenix TV, engaged me in a long, exclusive interview at the conference. In addition, Xinhua, People's Daily, China News Service, the China Daily, China Central Television, Hong Kong's Phoenix TV, and Hong Kong's ATV held a joint interview with me.

April 2005. Talking with former Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew during the Boao Forum for Asia

That Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference was a success in many ways. First, the concept of the path of China's peaceful rise was disseminated throughout China and the world, gaining attention from the international community and being seen as authoritative. Second was the systematic elaboration on the fact that China's rise is a peaceful one. That is, China has the complete capability to mobilize all proactive elements to resolve its large-scale development difficulties via support from domestic and foreign markets and resources while participating in economic globalization. Third was the elaboration on the relationship between China's peaceful rise and Asia, emphasizing that the peaceful rise of China is part of the peaceful rise of Asia, and that China will produce even more proactive and beneficial effects on the development, prosperity, and stability of its neighbors.

In January of 2004, we summarized the research and foreign exchange work we had done, and on this foundation, proposed the next phase of work.

Based on the project, in March of 2004, the core research team collected the reports from each of the subsidiary research teams and, by the following month, had put together the Research Findings on the Path of China's Peaceful Rise.

This 22,000-character report consisted of an introduction, a conclusion, and three chapters in the main section. The introduction explained the origins and development of the research. The first chapter of the main section summarized the path of China's peaceful rise over the previous 25 years, that is, the Chinese people standing up and beginning the march toward their national rejuvenation (which signified China's political rise) after the declaration of the establishment of the PRC. The path of China's peaceful rise that I speak of now, on the other hand, refers to the actualization of the national rejuvenation, which is a strategic path for a comprehensive rise during the period of time that began with the Third Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee (in the late 1970s) and will continue until the middle of the 21st century with the modernization of China. The path of this peaceful rise is this: China is striving to attain a peaceful international environment for the sake of its own development, and it is making use of this development to maintain world peace. The essence of this is that during these times with peace and development as their theme, China is linked to economic globalization instead of economic separatism while independently developing socialism with Chinese characteristics, thus allowing China to be a stable force in maintaining world peace and achieving its rise.

The second chapter analyzed the opportunities and challenges China's rise would face during the first 20 years of the 21st century. Nineteen strategic issues regarding the dangers and challenges to China's rise were discussed. This chapter emphasized that it is wrong to think challenges will not be met with and to naively think that China's peaceful rise could happen smoothly overnight. Similarly, there would be no use if all seems lost and full of trouble and if opportunities are not seen, especially those masked by danger.

The third chapter elaborated on how the path of China's peaceful rise is a new strategy that has never been seen in Marxist history. The conclusion discussed China's peaceful rise and its relation to the CPC, stressing that the Party has confidence, competence, wisdom, and the means to lead China in this endeavor.

Leading departments attached great value to this report, and held a special meeting to discuss it. They thought that in the beginning, this research project was proposed because of the concepts overseas of the“China threat” and “the coming collapse of China.” In essence, it was also to answer these questions: Can China achieve rejuvenation for its people as a developing country of 1.3 billion? How is this to be done? What will the effects be on the world? These are very important questions and needed to be seriously studied. They pointed to a specific sentence that they thought served as a perfect summary for the whole report: “China is striving to attain a peaceful international environment for the sake of its own development, and it is making use of this development to maintain world peace.”