03 韩反对党取得补选胜利对朝接触政策生变数

韩国执政党在首尔、釜山市长补选中遭遇惨败，凸显出明年总统大选结果难料。人们担心若保守派重新上台，韩国对朝政策会出现转向。

全文共612个词，by Edward White in Seoul

The future of South Korea’s pursuit of rapprochement with nuclear-armed Pyongyang has been thrown into doubt after the ruling party suffered a stunning defeat in mayoral by-elections in the two biggest cities.

随着韩国执政党在两座大城市的市长补选中遭遇令人震惊的失败，韩国寻求与拥核的朝鲜和解的前景出现了变数。

Voters in the capital Seoul and the southern port of Busan handed comfortable victories on Wednesday to candidates from the opposition conservative People Power party, dealing a blow to President Moon Jae-in’s progressive Democratic party ahead of presidential elections next year.

周三，韩国首都首尔和南部港口城市釜山的选民让保守派反对党“国民力量党”（People PowerParty）的候选人轻松获得胜利。这是在韩国明年将举行总统大选之前，对文在寅（Moon Jae-in）总统的进步派“共同民主党”（Democratic Party）的一次打击。

Analysts said the mayoral races were fought mostly on domestic issues, including property speculation scandals involving senior officials which deepened national outrage over rapidly increasing house prices.

分析人士表示，此次市长选举主要围绕国内问题进行交手，包括牵扯到高级官员的房地产投机丑闻。该丑闻加深了韩国国民对房价飙升的愤怒。

The polls were not viewed as a bellwether of support for Moon’s overtures to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. But they have raised uncertainty over Seoul’s foreign policy direction.

就民众是否支持文在寅对朝鲜金正恩（Kim Jong Un）的友好姿态而言，市长选举并不被视为一个风向标。但此次选举给韩国外交政策方向带来不确定性。

June Park, a Seoul-based political economist with George Washington University, says the political situation is “disturbing” with a lack of charismatic presidential candidates and the direction far from clear on issues such as relations with North Korea, China and the US.

常驻首尔的政治经济学家、乔治·华盛顿大学（George Washington University）研究员June Park表示，韩国政治局势“令人不安”，因为缺乏有人格魅力的总统候选人，而且对朝、对华、对美关系等问题的风向十分模糊。

“South Korea is in a very challenging environment but thinking there may not be a strong candidate makes a lot of citizens very worried about the future,” she says.

她表示：“韩国当前所处的环境非常有挑战性，但一想到可能没有强有力的候选人，许多国民都对未来非常担忧。”

South Korea is deeply divided along political lines. Progressives traditionally favour engagement with North Korea and closer ties with China but the close US ally, at the heart of Asia’s technology supply chain, is also increasingly under pressure from Washington to join its regional and multilateral initiatives geared towards countering China’s rise, analysts said.

韩国在政治路线上存在深刻分歧。分析人士表示，进步派在传统上支持与朝鲜接触、与中国建立更紧密的联系，但这个处在亚洲科技供应链中心的美国紧密盟友也承受着华盛顿方面日益增强的压力，后者要求韩国加入其旨在对抗中国崛起的地区与多边倡议。

The questions now hanging over South Korea’s approach to North Korea come with nuclear talks having stalled between Pyongyang and Washington and President Joe Biden’s administration reviewing US policy on the nuclear state.

现在韩国对朝方针被打上了问号，正值朝美之间的核对话已经暂停，而乔·拜登（Joe Biden）总统的政府正在审视美国对朝政策。

Moon, who is serving a single five-year term, spearheaded a period of international summits with Pyongyang after he took office in 2017. His government has urged the international community to ease sanctions and boost aid for North Koreans suffering from the severe downturn amid the coronavirus pandemic which has further isolated their country.

只有一届五年任期的文在寅于2017年上任后，带头开启了一段与朝鲜开展国际高层对话的时期。新冠疫情让朝鲜更加孤立、使朝鲜人遭受严重的衰退，文在寅政府则敦促国际社会对朝鲜放松制裁、增加援助。

But Kim has also cut engagement with Moon, an effort to pressure the South Korean president into offering bigger concessions.

但金正恩也切断了与文在寅的接触，此举是为了施压这位韩国总统做出更大的让步。

The victories for former mayor Oh Se-hoon in Seoul and Park Hyung-jun in Busan were viewed as the first signs of a revival in the political fortunes of opposition groups. They have mostly languished since the downfall of Park Geun-hye — the president who was ousted from office and later imprisoned over corruption.

前市长吴世勋（Oh Se-hoon）在首尔当选，朴亨埈（Park Hyung-jun）在釜山胜出，这被视为反对派政治时运复苏的早期迹象。自朴槿惠（Park Geun-hye）倒台以后，反对派基本上一蹶不振。前总统朴槿惠被弹劾下台，后来因腐败而入狱。

John Delury, an Asia expert at Yonsei University in Seoul, believed, however, there would not be a“radical turn” if conservatives returned to power next year given most South Koreans generally support forging closer ties with North Korea.

不过，首尔延世大学（Yonsei University）亚洲专家鲁乐汉（John Delury）认为，即使保守派明年重新执政，也不会出现“剧烈转弯”，因为大多数韩国人普遍支持与朝鲜增进联系。

“Are the conservatives going to come in with a confrontational approach to North Korea? I don’t think that is very popular,” he said.

他表示：“保守派上台后是否会对朝鲜采取对抗态度？我认为这不会很受欢迎。”

Still, the election results were a striking turnround from a year ago when the Democratic party stormed to its first legislative majority in 16 years on the back of resounding public approval of the Moon government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Beyond the two high-profile mayoral races on Wednesday, People Power won 13 of 19 other local posts contested.

但与一年前相比，此次选举结果仍是一次明显的转向；一年前，凭借民众对文在寅政府应对新冠疫情的高度认可，共同民主党获得大胜，16年来首度拿下议会多数席位。本周三，国民力量党不仅高调赢得两场市长选举，还在其他19个进行补选的选区中赢下13个选区。

The election campaigns also returned the spotlight to South Korea’s struggles with women’s rights and homophobia.

此次竞选活动还让聚光灯重新聚焦韩国在女权和恐同问题上的困境。

The mayoral by-elections were needed because Park Won-soon, the former longstanding popular mayor of Seoul and once favoured presidential frontrunner, committed suicide after allegations of sexual assault from a staff member and Oh Keo-don, the former Busan mayor, resigned following a sexual misconduct allegation. And during the campaign several candidates drew criticism from LGBT+ rights groups over responses to questions on gay rights.

之所以要进行市长补选，是因前首尔市长朴元淳（Park Won-soon）在一名工作人员对他提出性侵指控后自杀——朴元淳一直颇得民心，一度被看好为领跑的总统候选人；而前釜山市长吴巨敦（Oh Keo-don）因不当性行为指控而辞职。在此次竞选期间，数名候选人对同性恋权利问题的回应都招致“LGBT+”权利组织的批评。