摘要

摘要：此次中美贸易摩擦是美国从战略上遏制中国的集中表现，同20世纪80年代美日贸易摩擦，既有相同之处，又有显著差异。相同之处在于，都属于守成大国对新兴崛起大国的天然压制，且守成大国对新兴崛起大国都存在巨额的贸易逆差。然而，与美日贸易战不同的是，中美存在根本的意识形态分歧，并且中国在诸多经济指标方面紧追美国，因此，美国挑起对华贸易战不仅仅是经贸利益的争夺，更是美国冷战思维的蔓延和全面打压中国的第一步，未来贸易摩擦与争端将持久而严峻。中美之间技术差距不断缩小导致美国对中国高科技产业发展产生恐慌，也是此次争端中美方特别关注技术转移的原因。中国的科技实力迅速提高，而美国技术进步则逐渐放缓，特别是领先技术的发明愈发困难，中美之间的技术差距不断缩小，这导致美国对中国高科技产业发展产生恐慌。此次贸易战是在逆全球化盛行、贸易保护主义抬头的背景下爆发的。中国长期以来已经成为贸易保护主义打击的重要对象，遭受了来自各国的严重的非关税贸易壁垒。美国不仅对中国发起贸易战，还对欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥等盟友挑起贸易摩擦。因此，贸易战是在逆全球化背景下，美国试图改变现行多边贸易体系的运行方式、重构国际经贸规则的重要手段。

如果中美贸易摩擦限定在500亿美元商品范围内，对中国的出口、经济增长和社会福利影响有限；限定在2500亿美元商品范围内，风险可控；但随着贸易摩擦加剧，中国的福利损失会不断增加，极端情况下负面影响将十分严重，因此要防止贸易战升级。即使美国和欧盟达成零关税协议，对中国的进出口、经济增长和社会福利的影响也十分有限；而对美国的福利状况会产生一定改善。技术进步是扭转外部环境不利因素的重要力量，当技术提升达到一定程度时，中国的社会福利和GDP将大幅度上升，且会对美国造成负面冲击。美国挑起的贸易摩擦直接加剧了中国经济的不确定性，使投资者对中国市场信心下降，导致了一段时间内人民币快速贬值和资本异动。跨境资本流动尚处于比较平稳的水平，尽管短期内汇率出现了异动，但是尚未引起资金的大规模跨境转移。美国可以通过多种途径将贸易战向金融领域扩展，中国可能将因此而发生更为严重的金融风险。美国2018年8月初通过的外国投资审查法案改革措施将增加中国对美投资的难度与不确定性，在中美战略竞争和贸易战的大背景下，中国对美正常商业投资可能面临更严重的泛政治化阻挠，相对于审查结果，新法案更重要的影响在于对交易各方的心理冲击，这可能会继续导致中国对美投资规模的大幅减少。

在应对贸易战的过程中，要本着“坚守底线、消除误解、正视问题”的原则，妥善解决不同性质的分歧与冲突。贸易摩擦可以成为中国深化改革开放的外部推动力量，中国各界要审视自身存在的问题，进一步深化改革、扩大开放。贸易战极有可能引发国际经贸规则加速重构，中国要坚持多边原则，争取对自身有利的重构方案，不断提升国际话语权。发生不利的外部冲击时，国内各界信心非常重要，中国要探索稳定信心的方案与策略。科技实力是立国之本，中国未来要加大科技研发投入，提高研发水平和效率，产出原创性领先技术。

关键词：中美贸易摩擦；外部环境；深化改革开放；技术创新

Abstract:This trade war is a concentrated manifestation of the United States strategically containing China.It has similarities and significant differences with the US-Japan trade frictions in the 1980 s.The similarity lies in the fact that all of them are the natural suppression of the emerging powers by the established big power,and the established big power has huge trade deficits with emerging powers.However,unlike the US-Japan trade war,there are fundamental ideological differences between China and the United States,and China is closely following the United States in many economic indicators.Therefore,the United States has provoked a trade war against China not only for economic and trade interests,but for the spread of the US Cold War mentality and taking the first step in an overall suppression of China,and the future trade frictions and disputes will be lasting and severe.The narrowing of the technological gap between China and the United States has caused the United States to panic about the development of China's high-tech industry,which is the reason why the US has paid special attention to technology transfer in this dispute.China's technological strength has rapidly increased,while US technological progress has gradually slowed down,and more importantly,the invention of leading technologies has become increasingly difficult.The technological gap between China and the United States has been shrinking,which has led to the US panic about the development of China's high-tech industry.The trade war broke out in the context of the prevalence of anti-globalization and the rise of trade protectionism.China has long been an important target of trade protectionism and has suffered from serious nontariff trade barriers from various countries.The United States not only has launched a trade war against China,but also has provoked trade frictions against allies such as the European Union,Canada,and Mexico.Therefore,the trade war is an important means for the United States to change the way the current multilateral trading system operates and to reconstruct international economic and trade rules in the context of counter-globalization.

If Sino-US trade friction is limited to $50 billion of goods,it has limited impacts on China's exports,economic growth and social welfare,and to $250 billion of goods,the risk is still controllable.However,as the trade friction escalates,China's welfare losses will continue to increase.In an extreme case,the negative impacts will be very serious,so it is necessary to prevent the trade war from escalating.Even if the United States and the EU reach a zero-tar iff agreement,the impacts on China's imports and exports,economic growth and social welfare are very limited,while the welfare situation in the United States will be improved.Technological progress is an important force to reverse the unfavorable factors of the external environment.When the technological advancement reaches a certain level,China's social welfare and GDP will rise sharply and will have negative impacts on the United States.The trade war provoked by the United States directly aggravates the uncertainty of the Chinese economy and causes investors'confidence in the Chinese market to decline,leading to the recent rapid depreciation of the RMB and capital movements.Cross-border capital flows are still at a relatively stable level,though the exchange rate has changed in the short term,it has not caused large-scale cross-border transfer of capital.The United States can expand the trade war to the financial sector through various channels,and China may have even more serious financial risks.The Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act passed by the United States will increase the difficulty and uncertainty of China's investment in the United States.Under the background of China-US strategic competition and trade wars,China's normal business investment in the United States may face more serious political obstruction.Relative to the results of the review,the most important impact of the new bill is the psychological impact on all parties to the transaction,which may continue to lead to a significant reduction in the size of China's investment in the United States.

In the process of dealing with the trade war,we must properly resolve differences and conflicts of different natures in line with the principle of“holding the bottom line,eliminating misunderstandings,and facing problems”.The trade war can become an external driving force for China to deepen reform and opening up.All lines of work in China must examine their own problems and deepen reform and expand opening up in the future.The trade war is very likely to trigger the accelerated restructuring of international economic and trade rules,China must adhere to multilateral principles,strive for a reconciliation plan that is beneficial to itself,and continuously enhance the international discourse power.When adverse external shocks occur,confidence in all sectors of the country is very important,China needs to explore solutions and strategies to stabilize confidence.The strength of science and technology is the foundation of the country,China should increase investment in science and technology R&D in the future,improve the lev el of R&D and efficiency,and produce original leading technology.

Key Words:Trade Friction between U.S.and China; External Environment; Deepening Reform and Opening up; Technological Innovation