摘要
外商直接投资（Foreign Direct Investment, FDI）威胁东道国产业安全问题一直是国内外学者研究的一个热点。但是FDI引致东道国产业风险的方式和路径错综复杂，涉及经济、制度、文化、体制等众多因素。目前各种基于内外影响因素进行的产业控制和产业安全的测度和评价研究，由于受指标选择的系统性、相关性、可测性、科学性、规范性等方面的制约，难以把握问题的实质，严重影响了评价的准确性和一致性，常常出现控制之名与控制之实不相符的现象。我们对外资产业控制的研究必须改变视角。调研中我们发现不同经济类型的外资企业在组织结构、产业布局和风险特征上存在较大差异，跨国投资者出于管理和协调的考虑所关注的区位因素也存在差别，但其根本目的是获得产业掌控力，通过产品定价权实现财富控制，通过产业链整合实现对产业发展进程和发展方向的控制。基于此，本书研究的出发点是从更加具体的产业组织、产业结构和产业布局行为操控上来分析外资企业对产品定价权和产业链构建的控制效应，并就如何实施FDI产业全息动态监控提出针对性的建议。
依照“现状—理论—专题—对策”的分析研究思路，本书从以下方面对外资实施产业控制的机理及外资对中国的产业控制状况进行了研究。
第一，对FDI在中国的产业投资行为特征及影响因素进行了调查分析。基于对微观企业的问卷调查，研究FDI投资行为的目的性和影响外资企业抢占市场、控制定价权、构建产业链等行为的因素，以便预测弱化FDI产业控制力的着力点。进一步通过对FDI投资的结构性研究，揭示出不同类型的外资企业对外资政策响应的重要性程度存在显著差别，从而推测出哪类企业更容易受外资政策调整的影响，提出弱化外资产业控制力的着力点。
第二，对FDI的产业控制机理进行了分析。构建起FDI“产业组织控制—产业结构控制—产业布局控制—定价权控制和产业链控制”的理论分析框架。对FDI改变东道国产业组织作用机理的分析认为FDI具有利用规模经济占优控制市场结构、利用技术研发占优控制市场运行、利用品牌占优控制市场绩效的行为动机。FDI对东道国产业组织的恶意控制将打破产业内企业间均衡有效的竞争格局，其结果是产业组织运行失去效率。对FDI改变东道国产业结构作用机理的分析认为FDI利用投资倾斜控制产业结构合理化进程，利用技术溢出效应和产业关联效应控制产业结构高级化的进程。FDI对东道国产业结构的恶意控制将造成产品生产低端化，资源浪费，企业缺乏成本压力和技术创新的危机感，经营运行效率低下，长期产业发展速度会变慢。对FDI改变东道国产业布局作用机理的分析认为FDI改变了当地的交通运输条件和物流网络，改变了市场盈利空间。FDI对东道国产业布局的恶意控制将改变所在地的区位条件，抑制区域增长极的极化作用以及极核扩散效应，阻碍产业集中度的提高，以及产业集群效应的实现。FDI通过在产业组织、产业结构和产业布局等方面的运作获得产业掌控力，综合表现为对产品定价权和产业链整合及延伸的控制，进一步地，通过产品定价权实现对东道国产业的生存控制，通过产业链整合构建控制东道国产业发展的方向和进程。
第三，构建了FDI产业控制力测度的指标体系。在理论分析的基础上，遵循科学性、合理性、可行性的精神，本着完备性、系统性、动态性、可测性、重要性的原则，本书构建出评判包括产业组织控制、产业结构控制、产业布局控制、定价权控制和产业链构建控制五个方面体现产业控制程度和方向的指标体系，共计16个子指标，并将其综合成一个总指数。这一外资产业控制综合指数不仅取决于各子指标的数值，而且取决于反映在不同背景下各指标重要性的权重。本书依照“对FDI控制产业运行状况的衡量必须考虑它在多大程度上影响了经济资源配置、投入产出效率以及产业增长”这一思想设计了一个VAR模型用于测算指标体系中各指标的权重，对中国典型产业的外资控制力进行了实证测度，得出了与实际相符的结论。
第四，利用风险率存活模型探讨了FDI投资时机与产业生态状况之间的关系。结果发现随着时间的积累，FDI投资的风险函数（概率）增长，并呈现长期上升的趋势。产业已有FDI投资规模、市场潜力、产业链整合程度、FDI投资专门化优势、对外开放程度等都是可以缩短FDI投资时间、加快FDI对东道国产业投资步伐的关键。
第五，基于对FDI产业控制作用机理的分析，本书认为FDI集中的市场结构本身并不构成产业安全威胁，东道国FDI审查工作的重点应当针对控制性行为而不是控制性结构，针对单个交易项目而不是整个行业，对交易项目进行有效的风险评估，以及建立敏感岗位的就业安全标准。根据安全系统论、安全信息论和安全控制论，以互联网为工具，结合产业安全工作实际设计出全息动态监管系统。本系统以外资企业生产经营行为信息为输入，经过信息的收集、存储、筛选、整理、隐患信息监控与风险控制系统的反馈管理，实现产业安全运行或产业损害最小化。
关键词：外商直接投资 产业控制力 定价权 产业链构建 监控系统
Abstract
How foreign direct investment（FDI）threat the industry security of host country has always been a research topic for domestic and foreign scholars. But when and how FDI damage occur is complex, which involves various aspects such as economy, society, culture, industrial regulatory regime, and so on. At present all kinds of measure and evaluation research for industry security are based on the internal and external related factors. But due to the selected index are lack of normalization, scientificity and unification, the evaluation often lack accuracy and consistency, which mislead the supervision and policy formulation for FDI. So it is necessary for researchers to design a scientific method to assess industry safety and build up an operable system to effectively supervise FDI. Our study intends to do such work to explore the mechanism of FDI controlling industry of host country, find the characteristics of FDI affecting Chinese industry development, devise an effective evaluation system to assess FDIs' industry controlling power, and design a regulatory system for FDI in China. The main work includes：
（1）To analyze FDIs'industrial behavior characteristics in China. Based on a questionnaire from the microscopic enterprises, FDIs'motivation, FDIs'scales and correlated factors which affected FDIs' flows were illustrated. The investigation give us new insights into the FDIs' behaviors to seize market share, vie for pricing power, and FDIs' industrial control powers. Further analysis for the FDI structure reveals the different types of foreign investment enterprise have different degree's response to the FDI policy of host country, by which it can be inferred what kind of enterprise are more susceptible to FDI policy adjustments.
（2）To explore the mechanism of FDI controlling industry of host country. We build up a theoretical analysis framework of FDIs' industrial controlling power, that is, “controlling on industrial organization-controlling on industrial structure-controlling on industry layout-pricing power＆controlling on industrial chain”. The mechanism of FDIs' industrial organization controlling means FDI dominants market structure by taking the advantage of its large scale, governs market operation by its leading technology, and manipulates market performance by its famous brands. The malicious control of FDI for industrial organization will break the effective competition among enterprises within the industry, as a result, the industrial organization's operating is no longer efficiency.
The mechanism of FDI controlling on industrial structure involves two channels: one is to control the process of rationalization of industrial structure by investment inclination; the other is to control the pace of industrial structure upgrading by technology spillover and the industrial chain effect. FDIs' malicious control for industrial structure will lead to low-end products prevalence, bring tremendous resource waste, and kill domestic enterprises technology innovation and creativity, and competition awareness. In the long run, industrial development will run inefficiency and unsustainable.
FDI inflows can change the local conditions of transportation and logistics network, change the market profit margins, and thus change the industry lay-out. FDIs' malicious control for industrial layout will deteriorate the local geographical conditions, deter the formation and development of the industry cluster district, inhibit the polarization and limit the proliferation of a regional economic development, which will restrict the industrial concentration, constrain the industrial structure optimization, and weaken the ability of the industry to response market adjustment. FDI achieves industrial controlling power by manipulating the industrial organization, industrial structure and industrial layout, which embodies to a certain extent the product pricing power and industrial chain integration and extension. Further, FDI uses the product pricing power to control the survival of the industry, and organizes the industrial chain reconfiguration to control the industrial development of the host countries.
（3）On the basis of above theoretical analysis, following the general principles of completeness, rationality and feasibility, systematic, dynamics, measurability, this book select 16 variables to compose an index as accurately as possible to assess the FDI controlling level on industrial organization, industrial structure, industry layout, pricing power and industrial chain reconfiguration. Whether the composite index would evaluate correctly and accurately the FDI industry controlling level not only depends on the appropriation and their sizes of the various choose indicators, also depends on the weight of each indicator which reflects its relative importance in the comprehensive evaluation. We design a VAR model used to calculate the weight of each indicator following the ideology that“the assessment of FDI industrial controlling power should based upon how much it can affect the resource allocation, input and output transformation, and growth of the industry”. The critical boundary of FDI industrial control level is also defined. The empirically results of FDI controlling power of typital industries of China is consistent with the reality.
（4）To study the relationship between FDI investment timing and the industrial ecological status using a survival model. The results show that FDI risk function（probability）increases with prolonging period of time, and has a long-term upward trend. FDI scale in China, market potential, the industrial chain integration degree, the open degree to the outside world, and FDI enterprises' itself specialization advantages all can affect FDI inflows to China.
（5）To devise a holographic dynamic supervision system for FDI. Based on system theory, information technology and cybernetics, using Internet as a productive tool, a FDI holographic dynamic supervision system for industry security is designed. The system input is the information variables describing FDI enterprises' production and management behaviors, the output is industry damage degree/industry security degree, the system operation procedures include information collection, storage, filter, sorting, hazards monitoring and feed-back management of risk control to realize the safe operation of the industry and/or minimizing industrial injuries.
Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment（FDI）; Industrial Controlling Power; Pricing Power; Industrial Chain Reconfiguration; FDI Monitoring;Controlling System