第4章 Foreign Exchange Market (3)
文学和历史一样，饱含了前人留下的宝贵经验和才智。鉴于此，为什么不把这些宝贵资源充分汲取呢？小说所涵盖的主题是不受任何限制的。厄内斯特·海明威的小说的内容能激发人们的灵感。奥斯卡·王尔德会提供十分独到的、精辟的商业建议。亨利·大卫·梭罗则是教人自助自立的大师级作家。这些书能够提供的原理古今通用，不仅促进个人发展，而且还能帮助你创造财富。
● 管理学
老板们的一个通病，就是不知道如何管理好自己的员工。如果想要经营一门生意，你必须能高效高速地处理问题。当你对管理的理念有所了解，又掌握了多种应对方法和技巧之后，你这个老板就会变得人见人爱，而且还能赚到更多的钱。
核心单词
downright [5daJnrait] adv. 完全地，彻底地
accounting [E5kauntiN] n. 会计；会计学
inventory [5invEntri] n. 存货清单；存货盘存
emanate [5emEneit] v. 发源
财经知识一点通
信用危机 (credit crisis)
信用危机的主要表现是：商业信用和银行信用遭到破坏，大批银行倒闭，商业信用需要减少，借贷资本的需要大大超过供给，利息率急剧上升。
现金流(cash flow)
一般是针对企业而言的，所以现金流是指某一段时间内企业现金流入和流出的数量，比如企业销售商品、提供劳务、出售固定资产、向银行借款、上市等都会取得现金，形成现金流入；购买原料、支付工资、构建固定资产、对外投资、偿还债务等都需要支付现金，从而形成企业的现金流出。
翻译行不行
Is it common knowledge that school doesn’t prepare you well for the real world？
Too often，products fail because their creators didn’t bother to learn whether a market existed for that product.
If you want to own and run a business，you need to manage that business effectively and efficiently.
第一章 Reflation And How To Exploit It
如何从通货再膨胀中获利
The most talked-about investing strategy these days isn’t stuffing money in a mattress，it’s the reflation trade—the bet that the world economy will rebound，driving up interest rates and commodities prices.
Even though the economy continues to struggle，investors are looking ahead to the time when the massive rescue efforts by central banks and governments gain traction.
They are focused on raw materials and commodity-related stocks that would benefit from the surge in infrastructure spending. They are looking to exploit potential bottlenecks in production that could lift prices and corporate earnings.
“Between the bailouts and the stimulus，it’s pretty clear that we’re going to have some inflation when we get out of this mess，”says Roger Ibbotson，founder of Ibbotson Associates and chairman of hedge-fund manager Zebra Capital Management. He says，“It may not show up for another two years，after that I think it’s quite likely and I think you should be positioning a portfolio against that.”
Shawn Rubin，an adviser at Smith Barney in New York，has moved some clients partly into natural-resources stocks while using strategies to protect against a spike in inflation.
One way is to use options，where an investor is able to use relatively small amounts of money and take positions that would profit from a massive drop in Treasury prices or a near doubling in gold prices. “While in the short run such trades may not work，it’s a long-term move，”Mr. Rubin says.“You should buy insurance when it’s cheap.”
And despite the recentl altirity that lifted stocks 20% from their lows as of Thursday—the common definition of the return to a bull market，though they promptly fell again Friday—most investors expect a challenging environment well into next year.
But the Federal Reserve has taken dramatic steps to revive the economy and stabilize the financial system. It has lowered interest rates essentially to zero and is on track to pump more than $2 trillion into the credit markets.
On top of that，there is the $787 billion federal stimulus program coupled with a growing budget deficit. Around the globe central banks and governments are making similar moves.
Paul Kasriel，director of economic research at Northern Trust，says “the Fed will likely err on the side of ensuring that the recovery is sustained and usually that means they will be late in turning against inflation. The political sentiment will be toward inflation and in preventing deflation，” he adds.
Mr. Liinamaa suggests investors keep a “survivor bias”. That means“looking for names that have low cost structures and balance-sheet capacity to still be standing”even if demand doesn’t recover soon. He cites steel producer Nucor as one example.
Already there are signs that the market is less worried about deflation. That’s clearest in the market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Back in February，five-year TIPS were priced for a 0.5% drop in consumer prices，now that’s swung around to a 1.35% increase.
“The magnitude of the expected inflation rise predicted by TIPS may be small，but the direction tells the tale，”says John Hollyer，a co-manager of Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund.
“The fiscal and monetary stimulus are causing investors to say there’s a decent chance the Fed will be successful and there will be an increase in inflation，”he says.
就市场而言，最近谈的最多的投资策略并不是寻求避险，而是通货再膨胀交易——下注全球经济将复苏，从而推高利率水平和大宗商品价格。
即便目前经济仍然走势蹒跚，投资者却具有前瞻性地看到了各国央行和政府的大规模救助举措发挥作用的时刻。
他们重点关注原材料和大宗商品相关类股，这些类股可能会从基础设施支出的飙升中受益。他们还期望从生产瓶颈中获利，生产瓶颈会推高价格和企业利润。
伊博森伙伴咨询公司创始人、对冲基金公司斑马资本管理有限公司董事长伊博森说，“在诸多救助计划和刺激计划中，很明显我们走出经济危机的时候会出现一些通货膨胀。”他说，“或许这种情况两年之内不会出现，但我认为在两年之后，很有可能出现，我觉得你们应该针对这种情况设置一个投资组合。”
史密斯·邦尼公司驻纽约顾问肖恩·鲁宾已经将一些客户的部分投资转移至自然资源类股，同时使用策略应对通货膨胀上升的风险。
期权是一种手段，投资者可以使用相对较少的资金，建立头寸应对国债价格大幅下挫或金价上涨将近一倍的情况。如果出现这种情况，他们就能从中获利。鲁宾说，“尽管此类交易短期可能不会奏效，这是一个长期性举措。你得趁成本低廉的时候就采取防范性措施。”
尽管在近期涨势的推动下，截至上周四美国股市较低点回升了20%──达到了通常的牛市回归标准，不过上周五再次急剧下滑──但多数投资者仍认为明年会遭遇更为困难的环境。
不过，美国联邦储备委员会(Fed，简称：美联储)已经采取许多重大举措重振经济，稳定金融体系。美联储已经将利率下调到实际为零的水平，并正在逐步向信贷市场注入超过2万亿美元。